Core Value

I've talked a lot about the Oilers being a young team building around Ales Hemsky. Well, a lot might be pushing it a bit... but anyway.

When you're building a young team you have to be able to see a future worth struggling for. Is all this losing, all these games where you're ripping your hair out because the team can't score a bloody goal to save their lives, all these angry message board or blog posts that depress you, is it all going to be worth it? Is there enough there to make you feel good about where the team is going.

Problem #1 is that getting Dustin Penner takes away the "well if we tank at least there's a high draft pick in it" factor. So you can't actively hope for the Oilers to suck. You still hope they make the playoffs and suffer with each loss. Whereas last year once the losing streak started we were all dealing OK with it because we knew there'd be a gift at the end of it.

Poor Penner is going to get even more bad karma because of all the grief he's causing. That big oaf better turn into a player. He sure shows spurts.

(Side point: can we judge ANYONE's goal scoring ability on this team? Lupul couldn't score here, now he's on fire. Pitkanen was a point machine elsewhere, so far almost nothing here. Sykora had one of his lowest point totals... until things go better, is this team just going to be a black hole for goals?)

Regardless, are there players on this team that make you believe this team could be the Ottawa Senators a few years down the road. Are any of these guys Dany Heatley, Marian Hossa, Jason Spezza, Wade Redden...?

It's great to be optimistic about Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. They give us fans lots of reasons for optimism. These two kids are going to be NHL players. However, are they going to be stars? It's hard to picture it when their own competition in this year's rookie class are all ready doing a lot more to help their team win. Stack Toews and Kane up with Gagne and Cogliano and you realize the Oilers dynamic duo isn't likely to go head to head for the Hart trophy.

Looking say 5 years from now who are the guaranteed NHL players from this team? I mean assuming they don't get injured or go through some kind of Tommy Salo meltdown.

Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Ales Hemsky, Joni Pitkanen

I'd say those guys are pretty much the only guarantees. You never know what could happen, but I'd bet big money on all five having NHL jobs in five years.

Next up, who will very likely/almost surely have NHL jobs 5 years from now?

Tom Gilbert, Jarrett Stoll, Ladislav Smid, Dustin Penner, Raffi Torres

What prospects would you be very surprised if they didn't have regular jobs in 5 years?

Taylor Chorney, Jeff Petry

Finally, who has a pretty good chance?

Matt Greene, Fernando Pisani, Riley Nash, Mathieu Garon, Devan Dubnyk, Kyle Brodziak, Grebeshkov

Now there are other players in the mix obviously. A group including Pouliot, Schremp, Jacques, Deslauriers, etc. I'm not comfortable looking that far into the future with any of those guys. So for now I'm excluding them.

Lets put this all together though. Based on my rough guesses, out of this current group of players, what could an NHL roster look like in 5 years?

Centres: Gagner, Horcoff, Cogliano, Stoll, Nash

Wingers: Hemsky, Penner, Torres, Pisani, Broadziak

Defence: Pitkanen, Gilbert, Smid, Greene, Chorney, Petry, Grebeshkov

Goalie: Garon, Dubnyk

Based on how you project the growth of all those players is that team a championship contender? Are they top 5?

You know what, as much as I like those kids, as much as I think that D could be terrific....

I don't think so.

I don't think they'll score enough goals. Even in 5 years I have my doubts that they'd score enough goals. There are lots of terrific pieces there, but is there a sniper? Are there enough guys that scare you when they're on the rush? I doubt it. It's gonna take a lot of work yet.

That's a little scary.